In 2019, the projected market is worth USD 160 million. We expect the overall RNAi therapeutics market to be worth USD 3.9 billion by 2025 and this value is projected to reach USD 9.2 billion by 2030. This represents annualized growth rate of 45% between 2019 and 2030. In the optimistic scenario, we expect the market to be worth USD 4.1 billion by 2025 and USD 9.6 billion by 2030. In the conservative scenario, our projections indicate that the market is likely to be worth USD 3.7 billion by 2025 and USD 8.7 billion by 2030. Additional details of these scenarios are outlined in the appendices.
Presently, the market is dominated by the presence of RNAi therapeutics developed using the siRNA molecule. By 2025, RNAi drug candidate based on shRNA molecule are likely to enter the market. However, in 2030, RNAi therapeutics developed using siRNA molecule are still anticipated to capture the highest market share (99.6%).
Currently, most of RNAi based drugs are being developed for the treatment of genetic disorders (87.1%), followed by those intended for metabolic disorders (7.8%). Further, drug candidates targeting genetic disorders are anticipated to capture the highest share (33.3%) by 2030. This is likely to be followed by RNAi therapeutics intended for the treatment of metabolic disorders (25%) and ophthalmic disorders (23%).
Presently, the intravenous route of administration is preferred by most of the developers. However, by 2025, the market is likely to be dominated by the presence of drug candidates being administered through the subcutaneous route (58%) and in form of eye drops (21%). This trend is unlikely to change in the future as well. In fact, in 2030, RNAi therapeutics administered through the subcutaneous route are likely to capture 62% of the market share, followed by those delivered in form of eye drops (23%).
In 2020, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is expected to capture a significant share of the market and this trend is unlikely to change in the future as a large number of its lead drug candidates are currently being evaluated in late stages. However, till 2030, Sylentis is likely to capture more than 20% stake in the RNAi therapeutics market.
It is worth highlighting that majority of RNAi therapeutics in higher stages of clinical development are being evaluated in North America. In fact, in 2020, RNAi based drugs being developed in North America and Europe capture 93% of the market share. Furthermore, North America is anticipated to capture the highest share (57%) by 2030, followed by Europe (42%). On the other hand, countries in Asia-pacific are expected to capture only 2% of the total market, by 2030.