Hot Rolled Coils Price Trend and Forecast
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Hot Rolled Coil prices in the US market showed a mixed trend due to weakening demand amidst a few positive signs in the market. As steelmakers approached or even met breakeven points, multiple market participants recognized that the Hot Rolled Coil market had reached a bottom in October. High-priced raw materials had higher conversion costs, mainly expensive pig iron inventories and higher-priced scrap inventories. With the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in November, demand plummeted, and the rest of the year was expected to be slow. However, Hot Rolled Coil prices recovered in December. According to suppliers, HRC spot prices fell in mid-December as the market remained quiet due to the Christmas holiday. On the other hand, steel mills had maintained higher prices and were refusing to lower them. Domestic Hot Rolled Coil manufacturers in the US market appeared optimistic about the new year, but spot pricing remained lower than during the previous summer and fall seasons. Thus, the HR Coil (3 mm) prices for Ex-US Midwest (USA) were fixed at USD 784/MT during the last week of Q4.
Asia Pacific
In the Chinese market, the Hot Rolled Coil prices showcased a stagnancy in their price trend in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to weakened buyers’ purchasing activities amidst the relaxation measures on the zero-Covid policy. HRC production increased in October, while consumption increased slowly due to sporadic Covid lockdowns and logistics issues. Buyers were opting for lower prices, while manufacturers claimed the prices had touched the bottom line. In November, the Hot-Rolled Coil prices increased as the traditional peak demand season was gradually approaching the end. Downstream inquiries for hot rolled coils bottomed out in December, pushing prices in the domestic and export markets to five- and four-month highs. China’s major flat steel manufacturers, Boasteel, Anshan Iron & Steel (Angang), and Benxi Iron & Steel (Bengang), raised their flat steel offers for January. The three companies agreed to increase hot rolled coil quotations by USD 28.7/MT in December. As a ripple effect, the Stainless Steel HR Coil prices for FOB Shanghai (China) settled at USD 705/MT during Q4.
Europe
Towards the closure of 2022, the Hot Rolled Coil prices edged downward in the German market, despite discounts offered by major suppliers. HRC manufacturers reduced their offers in October to fill order book gaps. Despite this, regional trading activity remained sluggish because buyers had enough material to hold off on new purchases until the mid-first quarter of 2023. In addition, several European steelmakers halted or reduced output in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 to close the supply-demand gap. Long-term contract negotiations between mills and end users in the automotive industry had progressed at higher prices than had been initially targeted. HRC prices remained mostly stable due to conservative bookings, a pessimistic outlook, and weak market conditions. Thus, during the final week of Q4, discussions on HR Coil (3 mm) prices for the Ex Ruhr were settled at USD 719/MT
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